The Political Divide

“We talk about enemies more than we used to.” - Josh Lyman, Deputy Chief of Staff to the President, West Wing, Season 1, Episode 9, November 24, 1999

More people avoid watching the news

According to the Reuters Institute’s 2022 Digital News Report interest in the news is falling in a number of places in the world, including the U.S. Here’s the proportion of people who actively avoid the news in 2022 along with the change since 2017:

• Brazil – 27% (2017) to 54% (2022)
• UK – 24% to 46%
• USA – 38% to 42%
• Ireland – 30% to 41%
• Australia – 30% to 41%
• France – 29% to 36%
• Spain – 26% to 35%
• Italy – 28% to 34%
• Germany – 24% to 29%
• Finland – 18% to 20%
• Denmark – 14% to 20% Japan – 6% to 14%

The reasons for avoiding the news are varied:

• 43% - put off by the repetitiveness of the news agenda – especially around politics and Covid-19
• 36% - say that the news brings down their mood (particularly those under 35)
• 29% - feeling worn out by the news
• 29% - think news sources can’t be trusted
• 17% - leads to arguments they would rather avoid
• 16% - leads to feelings of powerlessness
• 14% - don’t have enough time for news
• 8% - it is too hard to understand

Should we really be pessimistic about the future?

Former U.S. Secretary of Labor Robert Reich in his July 20, 2022, Substack post says: ”there is lots of bad news, to be sure. But compared to other years and times — the Trump years, the Nixon years, the carnage of Vietnam and the assassinations of 1968, the Great Depression, and World War II — we’re not really in such terrible shape.” Here’s why:

• War is rarer today than it has been for most of the past fifty years
• When war does occur, it is significantly less deadly
• Genocides and mass atrocities are less common
• Life expectancy, literacy and standards of living have all risen to historic highs
• Hunger, child mortality, and extreme poverty have all declined

Reich says low-income countries are less pessimistic because most are better off than they were in the past, while higher income countries like the U.S. are more pessimistic because they are not better off. Another factor is the multitude of issues and how powerless we feel to address them.

Climate Change

“I am a recovering politician, and the longer I go without a relapse the less likely one becomes.” - Al Gore, Meet the Press, July 24, 2022, when asked why he doesn’t run for president with a climate-focused campaign?

West Virginia won’t work with banks that pledged to fight climate change

The difficulty in addressing climate change manifests itself in multiple ways. Finance is one. According to a July 28, 2022, article in Axios, West Virginia will no longer do business with five financial institutions “over their pledges to fight climate change by reducing financing for fossil fuel projects.” West Virginia is a major coal-producing state, and the elimination of coal as a source of energy is important to reducing carbon emissions.

Reduction of airborne fine particles has offset carbon emissions reductions

According to a July 20, 2022, story in Science, “researchers have found that the climatic influence of global air pollution has dropped by up to 30% from 2000 levels.” Although good for public health, “airborne fine particles, or aerosols, are believed to kill several million people per year, … the cleaner air has effectively boosted the total warming from carbon dioxide emitted over the same time by anywhere from 15% to 50%.” The particles reflect sunlight and cool the planet, and as they are reduced, the planet becomes warmer, offsetting gains from carbon emission reductions.

Solar panel waste a looming challenge

A story in the Los Angeles Times on July 14, 2022, says that the first solar panels incentivized by California policies “are nearing the end of their typical 25-to-30-year life cycle.” The challenge is how to handle the waste from discarded solar panels. Only 10% of panels are recycled, and the rest are ending up in landfills “where in some cases, they could potentially contaminate groundwater with toxic heavy metals such as lead, selenium, and cadmium.” This isn’t just a California problem, but ultimately a national and global one.

Western Europe leads in reducing carbon emissions

If you think the U.S. is leading the way in addressing greenhouse emissions, think again. According to a July 20, 2022, article in the New York Times, “Western Europe has done more to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions over the past three decades than any other region in the world.” The European Union has cut emissions by about 30% since 1990. The U.S. is producing marginally more than it did in 1990.

Future of Work / The Economy

China population decline threatens its economic model

China’s “long-expected demographic decline is coming faster than anticipated, meaning a threat to its economic model is arriving years ahead of schedule,” according to a July 25, 2022, story in Fortune. The story says “U.N. data projects that China’s working age population will shrink from 986.5 million today to 767 million in 2050.” In the past, China’s economy was powered by this “large population of working-age people.” A dwindling population will “constrain labor supply, leading to upward pressure on wages.”

World population to reach 8 billion, a triumph and a call for solutions

According to a July 11, 2022, press release by the United Nations Population Fund, the UN’s sexual and reproductive rights agency, the world population will reach 8 billion people on November 15, 2022. The agency calls this milestone “a story of triumph. We have reduced poverty and achieved remarkable advancements in health care. There are more of us humans than ever before due, in part, to increasing life expectancy and declining infant and maternal mortality.” The agency also recognizes the milestone is a "clarion call for humanity to find solutions to the challenges we face,” citing climate change, conflict, and Covid-19 which “are disproportionately affecting the most marginalized and vulnerable among us.” Paradoxically, these challenges are largely caused by increased population and the spreading of economic prosperity to more of the global population.

Can the global economy move from growth to a sustainable economic and ecological equilibrium?

For a fascinating perspective on the role of growth and the global economy, read a July 17, 2022, interview in the New York Times Magazine with Herman Daly, an emeritus professor of economics at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. Daly argues that our economy is designed to grow, and if it fails to grow it’s a disaster. He asks “does growth ever become uneconomic.” He argues that GDP only measures benefits, it doesn’t measure costs. He says “the art of living is not synonymous with ‘more stuff.’ People occasionally glimpse this, and then we fall back into more, more, more.” He says that growth is the idol of our present system but "he has developed arguments in favor of a steady-state economy, one that forgoes the insatiable and environmentally destructive hunger for growth, recognizes the physical limitations of our planet and instead seeks a sustainable economic and ecological equilibrium.”

Predictions of a housing market downturn by region

The average price of housing is projected to grow slightly over the next year, but will vary dramatically by region. Both CoreLogic and Redfin have produced estimates and interactive charts of which markets will grow and decline. A July 24, 2022, story in Fortune provides CoreLogic’s view, and another Fortune story, this one on July 29, 2022, gives the Redfin perspective on where housing prices are most likely to fall.

Covid-19

America is running out of Covid virgins

Are you Covid virgin - one of the lucky ones who have avoided contracting the virus? That number is getting smaller by the day. According to a July 22, 2022, story in The Atlantic, “82 percent of Americans have been infected with the coronavirus at least once. Some of those people might still think they’ve never had the virus: Asymptomatic infections happen, and mild symptoms are sometimes brushed off as allergies or a cold." NBC News reported on July 23, 2022, on a few predictive factors beyond individual behavior, including:

• Genetics. Inhibiting certain genes that code for a receptor known as ACE2, which allows the virus to enter cells, could reduce a person's likelihood of infection.
• T cell immunity. T cells, a type of white blood cell that recognizes and fights invaders, seem to recognize SARS-CoV-2 based on past exposure to other coronaviruses. So when a person who has been infected with a common cold coronavirus is later exposed to SARS-CoV-2, they might not get as sick.
• The effects of inflammatory conditions like allergies and asthma. Low-grade inflammation from conditions like allergies or asthma may have a protective benefit.

The Nett Light-Side

Moon temperature: 63 degrees Fahrenheit

So you want to live on the moon. According to a July 30, 2022, story on NPR, researchers have found “the moon has pits and caves where temperatures stay at roughly 63 degrees Fahrenheit, making human habitation a possibility.”

Dead spiders transformed into miniature grippers

Spiders control their legs hydraulically. Rice University researchers have figured out how “to turn dead spiders into miniature “necrobiotic” grippers by pumping small amounts of air into their bodies.” According to a USA Today story on July 28, 2022, “the spider grippers have the potential for real-world applications in “microscale manipulation,” such as picking up tiny electronic components.”