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Welcome to the second 2021 edition of The Nett Report. Last year, given the uncertainty of the coronavirus crisis, we began publishing this report to provide our clients and friends with new perspectives and insights in hopes of stimulating creative thinking during that challenging period of time. Well, the challenges continue and so does The Nett Report. Feel free to share with friends! Links to the 2020 reports can be found here and the 2021 reports here.
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An Optimistic Quote for 2021
"There is always light. If only we are brave enough to see it. If only we are brave enough to BE it."
The Hill We Climb, Amanda Gorman, Poet Laureate
COVID-19 will likely be with us forever. Here's how we'll live with it.
While the headline above doesn't sound like good news, this article with the same headline from National Geographic does a remarkable job in describing Covid-19 in the context of other coronavirus diseases, including the four coronaviruses that contribute to the common cold. “My guess is, enough people will get it and enough people will get the vaccine to reduce person-to-person transmission,” Paul Duprex, director of the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Vaccine Research, told National Geo. He says there will still be localized outbreaks, but it will become one of the "regular" coronaviruses. The post-pandemic trajectory of the disease will depend on these three factors:
- How long humans retain immunity to the virus.
- How quickly the virus evolves.
- How widely older populations become immune during the pandemic itself.
"Depending on how these three factors shake out," the article says, "the world could be facing several years of a halting post-pandemic transition—one marked by continued viral evolution, localized outbreaks, and possibly multiple rounds of updated vaccinations."
“People have got to realize, this is not going to go away,” Roy Anderson, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London, told National Geo. “We’re going to be able to manage it because of modern medicine and vaccines, but it’s not something that will just vanish out of the window.”
The article continues to describe Covid as ultimately becoming like another common cold, along with information on human immunity and evolution of the virus.
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Pandemic Updates
New Covid rules and trends
There are a number of rules and trends related to the pandemic, most of which are being covered by traditional news sources. Several new items stand out that might not be broadly covered.
- Masks will be required in federal buildings and at airports on buses planes and trains.
- People traveling to the U.S. from abroad will need to present evidence of a negative coronavirus test.
- There is a trend emerging where people are wearing two masks, a cloth mask over an N95 or surgical mask, ostensibly to better prevent penetration by the virus.
- According to a December 28, 2020, story on CNN Business, “several companies and technology groups have begun developing smartphone apps or systems for individuals to upload details of their Covid-19 tests and vaccinations, creating digital credentials that could be shown in order to enter concert venues, stadiums, movie theaters, offices, or even countries.”
- Oil traders don’t see a rebound in travel until the third quarter of 2021.
Masks could be causing loss of skills in reading facial expressions
The Wall Street Journal on January 18, 2021, reported that face masks are “challenging our skill in understanding facial expressions - distinguishing disgust from anger, say, or happiness from indifference.” Scientists also worry “infants and children may lag behind in learning to recognize subtle facial signals.” (paywall might apply)
Indonesia Gives Vaccine Priority to the Young
It always interesting when you see thinking that is the reverse of the norm. Indonesia has taken an alternate view of who should get Covid vaccines first – the young. It is due in part to a peculiarity of the Chinese vaccine they are using. But the Washington Post Coronavirus Update newsletter reports that it also reflects the government’s desire to first immunize those most likely to get and spread the virus, rather than those most likely to die from it.
WHO - global herd immunity won’t be reached in 2021
According to a report in the Economic Times' HealthWorld.com, the World Health Organization (WHO) says global herd immunity won’t be reached in 2021. WHO's chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan stressed the need to maintain physical distancing, hand-washing and mask-wearing to rein in the pandemic.
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Impacts of Covid
The pandemic is ruining your body and breaking your toes
The Atlantic reports in a January 14, 2021, story that the pandemic is ruining your body. “Quarantine is turning you into a stiff, hunched-over, itchy, sore, headachy husk,” the story says. Spending longer hours working at home because we no longer have to commute is resulting in neck and shoulder pain, repetitive injuries, and other maladies. An NPR report last week reported a greater incidence of broken toes because of people working at home without shoes.
Workers plan to return to cities, but don’t want to buy homes
A January 12, 2021, story in the Wall Street Journal reports an increase in demand for short-term, furnished housing. Many young professionals have left cities for “warmer, cheaper places.” They plan to return after offices reopen but are “reluctant to buy homes or sign long-term apartment leases.” (paywall might apply)
Covid-19 precautions are quashing levels of other viruses
A January 6, 2021, story in the Washington Post reported that Covid-19 has quashed levels of other viruses. “These other viruses — including influenza A, influenza B, parainfluenza, norovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus — all appear to be circulating at or near levels lower than ever previously measured. The same is true for the respiratory bacteria that cause pertussis, better known as whooping cough, and pneumonia.” The graphics in the story are much more dramatic than the words.
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Covid-19 and the Environment
Covid-19 took a bite from U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2020
The New York Times reports that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions dropped more than ten percent last year.” If the trend can be sustained, it would put the United States within striking distance of one of its major goals under the Paris climate agreement.” However, a January 12, 2021, article in Resources Magazine “predicts that emissions will increase again once the economy rebounds.” The article says that “the world is a long way from deep decarbonization and that technology is the best route for accomplishing a clean energy transition.”
Emissions down but heat is up
Carbon emissions might be down because of Covid, but Grist, in a January 16, 2021, article cited a NASA report that 2020 was the hottest year on record. Two other global temperature tracking organizations, the U.K.’s Met Office and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said 2020 was the second-hottest year on record, closely tailing 2016. Meanwhile, the European Union’s climate change agency declared a tie between the two years. Ironically, Grist says that in the future, we might look back on 2020 and think it was one of the cooler years historically.
Water bills in the tens of millions of dollars going unpaid
NBC Bay Area in a January 14, 2021, story reported that “tens of thousands of Bay Area residents financially impacted during the COVID-19 crisis now face tens of millions of dollars in unpaid water bills, prompting both long-term financial and public health concerns.” In addition to the financial impact to both customers and the utilities, the fear is that water will be shut off to many of these water customers.
Drought fears in the west part of a 20-year trend
Even as utilities report financial concerns because of Covid, Axios reports in a January 14, 2021, story that a “forever drought” is taking shape in the west. Axios cites the U.S. Drought Monitor — the nation's official tally — showing Utah, Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico mired in ‘exceptional drought.’ This type of drought is only supposed to happen every 50 years, but it's now a regular occurrence.” An authoritative report issued on January 16, 2021, by the Public Policy Institute of California concurs, saying “California has been hot and dry for the past 20 years.”
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Nettleton Strategies - Helping You Navigate the Big Reset
This is a challenging time for all of us, in a way we have never experienced before. Here are some things you can do to move forward.
Take this time to imagine your future. We encourage you to imagine a post-coronavirus future when you can begin to realize your dreams in a sustainable way.
Assess your current and future status . At Nettleton Strategies, our philosophy has always been that we need to know two things to find solutions and move forward:
- A clear understanding of the status of the current situation.
- A clear vision of how you want your world to be in the future.
With those two benchmarks, you can create a path from your current status to the future imagined status, eliminating the obstacles and identifying processes and resources needed to reach the future state.
Let Nettleton Strategies help! We long ago discarded our flip charts and have facilitated client needs using digital tools. Now we have successfully facilitated client strategy sessions on Zoom. We can do the same for you! Let us help you:
- Clarify your unique value proposition as an organization.
- Identify clear goals that are measurable,
- Align what you do with available funding.
- Determine who should be responsible for next steps
- Help you to emulate best practices in your field
If you would like help navigating your way forward, contact us to learn more about how we can help!
Carl Nettleton is an award-winning writer , acclaimed speaker , facilitator, and a subject- matter expert regarding water, climate, sustainability, the ocean, and binational U.S. Mexico border affairs. Founded in 2007, Nettleton Strategies is a trusted source of analysis and advice on issues at the forefront of public policy, business and the environment.
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