The pandemic should really have brought us together, but …

The pandemic has in many ways divided us more instead of bringing us together. Some conservatives feel the restrictions on the economy are meant to take away our freedom. Some liberals fear that conservatives will try to control the population, in part, from what they have learned from the lockdown. The irony is that both sides value freedom, democracy and the right to be free from onerous government control, the very principles upon which our country was founded. However, we are divided by messaging from both sides, to our mutual detriment.

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Bill Gates regrets not doing more to call attention to the threat of a pandemic.

According to a Wall Street Journal  story as reported by Yahoo Finance, “Bill Gates repeatedly warned world leaders that a pandemic was on the way and that most countries were ill-prepared.” He says he should have “done more to call attention to the danger.” WSJ reported that “Gates quizzed scientists, wrote articles and blogs, funded research into how diseases spread and how to stop them, and bent the ears of presidents, prime ministers, and public health officials. But answers were scarce and responses were tepid. His foundation has spent $235 million on pandemic preparedness and response since August 2014 and has spent $305 million more on Covid-19.” “The whole point of talking about it,” Gates said, “was that we could take action and minimize the damage.

How Does Fauci Do It?

No single person has been more prominent in the COVID-19 public arena than Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases. How does he keep that calm and alert presence that has been so reassuring to Americans while keeping an intense schedule? Dr. Fauci told National Geographic that he thought he could get away with almost no sleep. “Thank goodness I have a very intelligent and clinically skilled wife who turned things around and said, ‘You’ve got to remember to eat, and you've got to remember to sleep. So once I got on track, the day is still impossible, but I don't think I'm going to drop dead from it. I hope not.’” How does he unwind? “I power walk with my wife, usually at night or on the weekends. It's dark, but we still do it anyway.”

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Pandemic boosts renewables amidst reduced energy demand

According to the International Energy Agency, as reported in an April 30, 2020, story in the magazine Science,

• Global energy demand is expected to drop by 6% in 2020, seven times more than in the 2008 recession, with a decline of 9% in the U.S. and 11% in the European Union
• Carbon emissions from the energy sector are expected to fall by 8% for the year—almost 2.6 gigatons, the largest drop ever recorded and six times the decline caused by the 2008 recession.
• Demand for renewable energy is expected to grow 1% over the year, driven by a 5% increase in use of renewable electricity. That contrast with fossil fuels stems largely from the low cost of energy from wind, sunlight, or hydropower.
• Coal generation will fall by 25% in 2020.
• Renewable energy sources account for the largest portion of new generating capacity in 2020, driving EIA’s forecast of 11% growth in renewable electric generation.

In a related story, Energy Wire reports that coronavirus could drive mass abandonment' of oil wells.

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What does Goldman Sachs have to say about COVID-19?

As you might imagine, Goldman Sachs, the global investment firm, is keeping its finger on the pulse of COVID-19. Here’s what Jeff Currie, Goldman’s global head of commodities research, said at a recent media briefing:

• Zoom will take a huge chunk of the business travel market.
• Global oil demand will drop around 2 to 3 million barrels per day as companies adapt to Zoom and other teleconferencing tools.
• Livestock is as precarious as oil due to the lockdowns. "[Livestock and oil] both share something in common: You do damage to the supply; it takes a while to bring it back online again."

What is the impact of COVID-19 on small business?

The U.S. Chamber and MetLife have released the monthly Small Business Coronavirus Impact Poll which surveys how small businesses nationwide are adapting their operations in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here’s what they are doing: 

• 27% have shortened their hours.
• 26% have asked customers for support or started a crowdfunding campaign.
• 19% have adjusted employee salaries or hours.
• 19% have applied for a working capital loan.

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CEOs talk about impacts on mental health

The May 8 issue of CEO Daily provided some CEO insights into how COVID-19 is affecting mental health of employees.

• Salesforce’s Marc Benioff - 36% of his employees have reported having mental health issues during the lockdown.
• Synchrony CEO Margaret Keane - has seen an increase in the number of calls on mental health issues – “something we have to be very focused on.”
• Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg and her Lean In Cofounder Rachel Thomas - the problem is particularly pronounced among women. “Homeschooling kids and caring for sick or elderly relatives during the pandemic is creating a ‘double double shift.’ It’s pushing women to the breaking point.”
• Lean In conducted a survey in April that found “one in four women say they are experiencing severe anxiety with physical symptoms like a racing heartbeat. One in 10 men say the same. More than half of all women are currently struggling with sleep issues.”

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Some additional tidbits about disruption to business and the economy

• Berkshire Hathaway  has reportedly lost $50 billion in the first quarter of 2020.
• The World Trade Organization expects global trade to fall by up to a third in 2020
• Key ocean industries such as shipping, fisheries and tourism have been disrupted.

 

COVID-19 – when nature is sick, we are sick?

National Geographic cites a UN report released last year that says the “rampant deforestation, uncontrolled expansion of agriculture, intensive farming, mining and infrastructure development, as well as the exploitation of wild species have created a ‘perfect storm’ for the spillover of diseases from wildlife to people. Future pandemics will happen more frequently, will kill more people, and will cause greater economic damage unless we start recognizing the inextricable links between human health and the health of the planet, its ecosystems, and its nonhuman living creatures.” National Geo says this is not a radical concept. The framework of One Health, recognized by the CDC, the World Health Organization, and governments and organizations around the world, does just that. The bottom line says National Geo: “When nature is sick, we’re sick.” 

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Keeping great apes safe from the coronavirus

COVID-19 might have originated from an animal source, but can also be transmitted from humans back to primates. In Africa and Asia, researchers and veterinarians are “cordoning off preserves, working with local villagers and government authorities to reduce contact with apes, and wearing masks in the forest,” according to Science.

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Economies begin opening around the world

• Iceland has begun opening up according to an AP report. Gatherings of up to 50 are permitted, high schools and colleges resumed classes, and all businesses except bars, gyms, and swimming pools could reopen. The entire country, however, must still self-isolate from the rest of the world. Everyone arriving from abroad faces a 14-day quarantine.
• Three Baltic nations will let their citizens cross their borders—but not those of the rest of the world—in what they call “a travel bubble.” The move by Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia follows a similar alliance announced by New Zealand and Australia.
• New Zealand has led the world in eradicating the virus, and is now allowing most businesses to open, with strict hygiene and distancing requirements. Bars will stay closed another week. Travel between regions will be able to resume. Schools will start back. Gatherings will be limited to 10 people.
• The New Zealand Ministry of Health does not recommend face masks for most people in the community except those with symptoms of an acute respiratory infection. Friends in New Zealand say the government believes people adjusting masks with their hands poses a greater risk than not wearing one.

What will a COVID-19 future look like?

The online publication STAT has provided a comprehensive analysis of three potential futures for Covid-19:

• Recurring small outbreaks. The current peak in Covid-19 cases is followed over the next two years by crest and dip, crest and dip. The crests will be less than half the size of this spring’s outbreak, with some of the highest numbers coinciding with flu season next fall and troughs this summer and next.
• A monster wave. Rather than reappearing throughout the year as the crests and troughs of the first scenario, Covid-19 would return with more ferocity in the late summer and fall and then dissipate, settling into a small but near-constant number of cases. 
• A persistent crisis. The waves keep coming because the size of the outbreaks that follow the current one are smaller than in the monster-wave second scenario. It therefore takes longer for population immunity to build up. Local outbreaks occur, worse in some places than others due to, in part, different capacities to conduct widespread, regular testing and contact-tracing.

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More future: the U.S. advantage post COVID-19

An opinion from Time Magazine’s Foreign Affairs Columnist Ian Bremmer: “Many more people will die. Lives will be upended and livelihoods lost. But whatever else can be said about tragically dysfunctional American politics and the country’s substandard health care system, the U.S. has lasting advantages that will matter in the years ahead.” Bremmer lists these advantages:

• Food production - only China and India produce more food and with less mouths to feed.
• Favorable geography - security on the southern border will remain a hot topic but it pales compared to the pressures Europe feels because of refugees from the Middle East and Africa.
• Oil production - which surged from 5 million barrels per day in 2008 to 12.3 million in 2019.
• The strength of the U.S. dollar as the world’s main reserve currency.
• The continuing dominance of U.S. tech companies.

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Unraveling the complexity of the Coronavirus

The April 20, 2020, issue of Atlantic makes a comprehensive attempt to explain “Why the Coronavirus is so confusing.” According to Zoë McLaren, a health-policy professor at the University of Maryland at Baltimore County, “we’ve never faced a pandemic like this before, so we don’t know what is likely to happen or what would have happened. That makes it even more difficult in terms of the uncertainty.” The article discusses why the pandemic continues to be so befuddling and tries to  make sense of “a problem that is now too big for any one person to fully comprehend.”

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Understanding the risks of COVID-19 and how to avoid them

Erin Bromage, a comparative immunologist and professor of biology (specializing in immunology) at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, has written a widely read post about the risks of COVID-19 and how to avoid them. Bromage believes “we are going to add fuel to the viral fire by reopening.” He outlines where most people get sick and explains the how and why in understandable fashion.