Covid-19

As we have rapidly become aware, Covid-19 has provided a new twist now that the Omicron variant has emerged. Here are some insights from three Science Magazine articles not widely reported in mainstream media.

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December 3, 2021 - New variant is better at evading immunity from past infections

The Omicron variant of Covid-19 has dozens of mutations which scientist worry might help it evade immunity. An analysis of 35,670 reinfections among 2.8 million positive tests in South Africa suggests that while “an earlier infection might help the new variant evade immunity … it looks like an earlier infection only offers half as much protection against Omicron as it does against Delta.” There are still a number of issues with the data, but “it is a good enough comparison to show us that … reinfections are a big deal with Omicron.”

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December 1, 2021 - Where did ‘weird’ Omicron come from?

Scientists are puzzled as to how and where the Omicron variant emerged since it has so many mutations. “Omicron clearly did not develop out of one of the earlier variants of concern, such as Alpha or Delta. Instead, it appears to have evolved in parallel—and in the dark.” That raises the question of where Omicron’s predecessors lurked for more than a year. Scientists see essentially three possible explanations:

• The virus could have circulated and evolved in a population with little surveillance and sequencing.
• It could have gestated in a chronically infected COVID-19 patient.
• It might have evolved in a nonhuman species, from which it recently spilled back into people.

The theory that it “evolved and circulated in a hidden population” is the one that scientists think is most likely, but “It’s too early to rule out any theory about Omicron’s origin.”

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November 27, 2021 - We won’t know for weeks how dangerous Omicron is

Scientists warn that it is too early to know whether Omicron is more infectious, more deadly, or better at reinfecting recovered people or evading vaccine-induced immunity. “One reason for concern about Omicron is that sequenced samples indicate it has rapidly replaced other variants in South Africa.” Scientists suspect it has spread to “many more places where it will be detected,” and epidemiologists are watching to learn how many people will be hospitalized and die. “All that will take time.”

The Political Divide

"We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately."
Benjamin Franklin’s observation at the time of the signing of the Declaration of Independence,

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Ignorance is bliss

I liked the cartoon below when it came out in 1991 so much my wife framed it for my office wall. Seems like it still describes how the world approaches difficult issues.
Image credit: Bill Watterson

Climate Change

Testimony by Pacific Institute about western water and climate to Congress

The well-respected Pacific Institute provided testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Oceans, and Wildlife October 20, 2021. The testimony summarized essential understanding of core issues behind the drought pattern in the West that has continued since 1999. Some key findings:

• Colorado River flows have decreased significantly over the past 100 years, from the 1922 assumption that the river yielded more than 16.5 million acre-feet (MAF) per year, to the 20th century annual average of 15.2 MAF, to the Millennium drought average of less than 12.4 MAF. Yet we should not assume that runoff has now stabilized at this dangerously low rate.
• In the face of continuing anthropogenic climate change, we can expect to see Colorado River runoff continue to decline, rapidly exhausting system storage and imposing harsh and inequitable impacts on the people, environment, and economies of the West.
• The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation now projects that both Lake Powell and Lake Mead could fall to critically low elevations in the next several years.
• The Lower Colorado River Basin is a model, studied internationally, for its ability to set aside the traditional tools of litigation in favor of collaborative investments in conservation and efficiency. Credible science and modeling have supported these efforts, improving water users’ understanding of the river system and the potential impacts of proposed actions.
• It’s time to confront the clear cause of the long-term and intensifying drying of the American West. Privileging and protecting a narrow set of extractive industries at the expense of the western way of life should no longer be tolerated.

Future of Work / The Economy

Wealth is being invested in real estate, not assets that drive economic growth

On November 15, 2021, Fortune’s CEO Daily reported on data from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) that might “cause analysts to think twice about treating capital gains tax rates differently than ordinary income on the assumption it drives investment, productivity, and economic growth.” Looking at ten big countries, MGI found:

• A world awash in capital.
• Wealth has tripled since the beginning of the century.
• Wealth has grown 50% faster than GDP, and—at six times GDP—reached levels never experienced before.”

Where is this capital invested?

• Two-thirds of the wealth is in real estate. 
• The assets that “drive economic growth”—infrastructure, industrial structures, machinery and equipment, intangibles, as well as inventories and mineral reserves—make up less than a third.
• Intangible assets—like software and intellectual property—account for only 4% of the global balance sheet.

“If the trend continues, and wealth keeps rising faster than GDP, it could lead to ever greater inequality in wealth. Or, in an alternative scenario, inflated wealth could be a sign that a correction in asset prices is coming, as the world returns to the norm. In either case, it seems clear that policy should focus less on undifferentiated ‘capital formation,’ and more on investments that drive economic growth.”  

The Nett Light-Side

Video: Drones that can perch on branches like birds

This December 1, 2021, YouTube video from Science Magazine shows a robotic set of bird-like feet, attached to the bottom of a drone, that allow the drone to perch on branches and even catch a tennis ball in mid-air.