The Political Divide

Who knew the world was this uncertain?

With a war in the Ukraine underway, the political divide has to be the lead category this week. As much as we have found the political divisions in the United States improbable, but real, the political divide between Russia, the Ukraine, and the rest of the world seems totally surreal. How can a sophisticated society like the Ukraine change in one day from a place where people go to work, attend school, and be enjoying life to fleeing the country and seeking shelter from bombing in subways, and arming themselves to fight in the streets? For insights, I often turn to CEO Daily. Here are some bullets from the February 25, 2022, edition.

From FedEx founder Fred Smith:

• The actual economic effect (of Ukraine) is pretty small. In large measure, this whole thing is about energy. It’s going to be punishing for European consumers. We are going to have a lot higher gas prices.
• With higher gasoline prices being a de facto tax on the American consumer, you are going to see spending negatively affected. And then the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates … So what you will see is a reduction in GDP.
• Germany shut down all their nukes. So they are either burning coal or burning gas. And the gas is going to come from Russia, or its going to come from us. Meanwhile, you’ve got a France which has been powered by nuclear since 1958. Nuclear is going to have a renaissance, and France is leading the way.

Some bullets from other CEOs and world leaders:

• What worries me a lot this morning is that I think this is a much longer-term plan. Putin is having a midlife crisis. This is a plan to go into the history books as a world order leader. Noubar Afeyan, Chairman, Moderna; CEO, Flagship Pioneering
• It’s very unclear how politically we are going to be able to come together and make a difference here. Laura Newinski, Chief Operating Officer, KPMG
• It’s easy to start a war, harder to end one. I don’t think (Putin) has a good plan for ending the war, and that worries me. Bob McDonald, former CEO, P&G
• In the medium term, there are going to be significant issues with inflation, the price of gas and the price of oil. But I believe we should be optimistic about the long term. When you look at science and innovation, I’ve never been more excited. I’ve never seen science and technology coming together like this in a way that we can change the world. Adam Schechter, CEO, Lab Corp.
• Putin won’t stop until it costs more to do it than he has to pay... World War III would mean that Putin would no longer be the richest person in the world, and wouldn’t have all that money. I doubt that it will go that far. He may think we are too corrupt to stay the course. Not financially corrupt, but not believing enough in anything anymore. Former President Bill Clinton

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Nixon on Russia in 1992 – the possibility of a new despotism

This 1992 Inside Washington interview on YouTube with Richard Nixon provides clarifying insight into Russian foreign policy.

“Russia at the present time is at a crossroads. It’s often said that the Cold War is over and the West has won. That’s only half true. Because what’s happened is the Communists have been defeated but the ideas of freedom are now on trial. If they don’t work, there will be a reversion, not to Communism, which has failed, but to what I call a new despotism, which would pose a mortal damage to the rest of the world. Because it would be infected with the virus of Russian imperialism which has been a characteristic of Russian foreign policy for centuries.”

The quote begins at about 13 minutes into the interview. As a side note, the graciousness of former President Nixon, who by many was considered evil, is striking in the context of today’s hate-tinged political rhetoric.

Climate Change

IPCC to release Sixth Assessment Report for Working Group II

On January 28, 2022, the United Nations’ International Panel on Climate Change will release Its Sixth Assessment report of Working Group II which will assess the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change and options for adapting to it. Working Group I released its report on August 9, 2021, which addressed the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change. Working Group III will release its report in April, focused on climate change mitigation, assessing methods for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. A synthesis report of all three working groups will be released in September.

Future of Work / The Economy

Companies are offering more perks and benefits

The great resignation has pushed many employers’ backs to the wall in trying to find and keep employees in a tight job market. A story in Fortune on February 22, 2022, reports that 51% of workers report their employers have added new or increased existing benefits over the last six months. Improved dental and vision benefits, health and wellness stipends, and options for permanent remote work were among the most common benefit expansions.

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Half of unemployed men have criminal records

Even in a competitive jobs market, it is still tough for nearly half of unemployed men to get a job since they have had a criminal conviction by age 35, according to a February 18, 2022, story in Science, “It really shows up [that unemployment] is actually a mass criminalization problem. … Because arrests are so common, they shouldn’t be considered in an employment context at all,” says sociologist Sarah Esther Lageson of Rutgers University, Newark, who was not involved in the study.

Covid-19

The pandemic lesson: demand more of the healthcare system.

The February 24, 2022, edition of CEO Daily, reported on an interview with Noubar Afeyan, chairman of Moderna and CEO of its parent company, Flagship Pioneering. He said that the lesson of the pandemic is “we need to demand more of the healthcare system.” The rapid development of a Covid vaccine showed what’s possible. Afeyan thinks the next step is to take a similar approach for challenges like obesity, Alzheimer’s and cancer: “97% of health care spending happens after a disease is diagnosed. We need to devote more attention to treating pre-disease,” he said.

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Does masking really matter? New study says “yes”

The controversy over masking has been an important part of the politicization of Covid. A February 16, 2022, study published in Health Affairs, looked at “matched cohorts from 394 U.S. counties between March 21 and October 20, 2020.” The study estimated the association between county-level public masking mandates and daily COVID-19 case incidence.” The conclusion: “on average, masking mandates likely conferred benefit in reducing community transmission rates and case incidence during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although such benefits were not equally distributed in all regions, it appears that masking mandates may offer broad value in reducing community risk during periods of elevated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US.”

The Nett Light-Side

Does walking 10,000 steps daily really matter?

A recent story in Inc. reported on whether taking 10,000 steps daily really mattered for your health. The concept was part of a Japanese marketing campaign that has become ubiquitous in American health culture, like “eating an apple a day keeps the doctor away.” New research followed 2,110 middle-aged adults who had worn a fitness tracking device for 11 years. The findings: getting more exercise is good, but there wasn’t anything special about 10,000 steps. Instead, “7,000 steps seemed to be an important inflection point. Taking that many steps reduced participants' chances of premature death by 50-to-70 percent.”

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21^st century message in a bottle travels 8,000 miles

A group of fifth graders built a 5.5-foot boat equipped with GPS, launched it from New Hampshire, and 462 days later it had traveled 8,000 miles and landed on the coast of Smøla, Norway. According to a February 16, 2022, story in CNN Travel, the students were able to watch the boat’s travel on Facebook Live.