The Nett Report - March 27, 2020

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It has been a long time since we published The Nett Report, but given the uncertainty of the coronavirus crisis, it seemed that publishing the report again might have value to our clients and friends. We hope to provide news, perspectives and insights you might not otherwise learn about in hopes of helping you to stimulate creative thinking in the weeks and months to come. Please feel free to share with friends!

 

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Why Is the Coronavirus so Different from the Flu?

The COVID-19 Threat Simplified Using Math

Despite all the headlines about the increasing rate of coronavirus infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, I have yet to see a concise explanation in the media of how COVID-19 differs from the flu and the reason for the dramatic response. Simplifying the understanding of the crisis really involves understanding the math.

The Flu. According to the CDC, this year’s flu season, which began on October 1, has resulted in the following statistics in the six months since the season began.

  • 38 million – 54 million infected people.
  • 390,000 – 710,000 hospitalizations
  • 23,000 – 59,000 deaths

The Coronavirus. The first coronavirus infection in the U.S. was recorded on January 19, 2020, according to the New England Journal of Medicine. By March 23, 2020, little more than two months later, the CDC reported 33,404 cases and 400 deaths, small numbers compared to the flu. Yet by March 27, four days later, there were 85,356 cases and 1,246 deaths.

How could the coronavirus numbers ever become worse than those for the flu?

  • Coronavirus is more infectious and easier to transmit. According to NPR, “data from China show that each coronavirus case seems to infect about 2 to 2.5 additional people. That's higher than the flu. The average patient spreads the flu virus to about 1.3 others.” Some estimates say that between 30 and 70% of any population could be infected if not checked. The state of California has estimated that 56% of the state’s population of 40 million could be infected.
  • A greater percentage of people need to be hospitalized. “8.3% of the total population get sick from flu each season,a CDC study found, including people who carry the flu virus but show no symptoms. According to the CDC, 1% to 2% require hospitalization. Estimates of hospitalization for coronavirus could be as high as 20%,” stretching hospital resources beyond any imagined capability, as is being demonstrated already in New York and Italy.
  • It is more lethal. The percentage of those infected who could die is estimated to be at least ten times that of the flu (1% vs .1%).

The formulas are simple for any population (your city, state, nation).

  • Population x infection rate = infected people
  • Infected people x hospitalization rate = hospitalized people
  • Infected people x death rate = people who die

When you do the math, all of this explains the drastic measures being implemented to stop the spread. If you aren’t infected you won’t be hospitalized and you won’t die from the coronavirus. Please be safe; take the preventative measures seriously.

Coronavirus image credit: CDC.


A View of Isolation from Space

We aren't the only folks to experience isolation, what about astronauts? “Scott Kelly, a retired NASA astronaut, offered advice on isolation from his year on the International Space Station: Follow a schedule, pace yourself with work, make sure to leave time for fun activities - he watched ‘Game of Thrones’ twice — and go outside if you can (but leave at least six feet between you and others).” N.Y. Times

From National Geographic: About Viruses and Borders

“In the fight against viruses, humanity needs to closely guard borders. But not the borders between countries. Rather, it needs to guard the border between the human world and the virus-sphere.”

Yuval Noah Harari, Historian; author of “Sapiens," and "21 Lessons for the 21st Century"

The First Amendment and the Right to Assemble

Discussions about the First Amendment have traditionally focused on freedom of speech and the press, What about “the right of the people to peaceably assemble?” While the current restrictions on public gatherings are critical to slowing the spread of the coronavirus, they have effectively over-ridden this First Amendment right. We should be all be vigilant in making sure that right is not lost as we come out of the coronavirus crisis.


The Loony Legacy of Money

Tom Robbins is one of my favorite authors, and his novel “Skinny Legs and All” tops the list of his writings I admire. One of the quotes from that book really highlights the bizarre situation in which we find ourselves thanks to the coronavirus:

“The loony legacy of money was that the arithmetic by which things were measured had become more valuable than the things themselves.”

Why does that have resonance for me? Because it is clear that we have plentiful food and plentiful housing in this country, but people now, and perhaps even more so in the future, will go hungry and experience homelessness because they don’t have the money to eat nutritious meals or put a roof over their heads. In an economic depression, Robbins says, there is “plenty of coal in the ground, corn in the fields, wool on the sheep. What was missing was not materials but an abstract unit of measurement called 'money.'” Something to ponder. 

Getting America Back to Work

New. York Times Opinion Columnist Thomas Friedman reported on a "A Plan to Get America Back to Work" in his March 22, 2020, column, he interviewed Dr. David L. Katz, the founding director of Yale University’s CDC-funded Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center and an expert in public health and preventive medicine who advocates a two-week isolation strategy. “Those who have symptomatic infection should then self-isolate — with or without testing, which is exactly what we do with the flu,’’ Katz told Friedman. “Those who don’t, if in the low-risk population, should be allowed to return to work or school, after the two weeks end.” High risk populations, the elderly or those with underlying conditions would remain isolated until the infection rate reached near zero. Katz believes this would allow the majority of the population to go back to work after the two-week isolation period, thereby protecting the economy.


"We Are Here on Earth to Help the People Around Us." Lars Helgeson, CEO, GreenRope

On March 19, 2020, to help his firm’s clients cope with the challenges of the coronavirus crisis on their businesses, Lars Helgeson, GreenRope CEO, said “we are here on earth to help the people around us.” His firm, a customer relationship management platform, is there to help, and so is Nettleton Strategies. These are trying times for all of us, in a way we have never experienced before. At Nettleton Strategies, our philosophy has always been that we need to know two things to find solutions and move forward:

  • A clear understanding of the status of the current situation as it affects us or our organizations.
  • A vision of an imagined future and how we would like our world to be in the future.

With knowledge of those two benchmarks, we can begin to create a path from our current status to the future imagined status, eliminating the obstacles and identifying processes and resources needed to reach the future state.

Take This Time to Imagine Your Future

Even as we all must cope with today’s reality, we encourage you to use this time when your business is shut down or you don’t have work, to begin imagining a post-coronavirus future. Visualize a time when the crisis is past and you can begin to realize your dreams once again. And as you do that, please imagine that future in the context of how you and your organization can help others in a sustainable way.

If we can help you find that path to a new future, please contact us.

 


Carl Nettleton is an award-winning writeracclaimed speaker, and a subject matter expert regarding water, climate, sustainability, the ocean, and binational U.S. Mexico border affairs. Founded in 2007, Nettleton Strategies is a trusted source of analysis and advice on issues at the forefront of public policy, business and the environment.


 


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Nettleton Strategies

P.O. Box 22971
San DIego, CA 92192-2971
U.S.A.
+1 858-353-5489
info@nettstrategies.com
http://www.nettstrategies.com

 

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