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Welcome to the 16th 2021 edition of The Nett Report. We began publishing this report in 2020 to provide our clients and friends with new perspectives and insights in hopes of stimulating creative thinking. Please feel free to forward to a colleague! Links to the 2020 reports can be found here and the 2021 reports here.

 
 

 
 

The Political Divide

"Protecting voting rights should not be today’s struggle. But it is. And that means it is our struggle, yours and mine, for as long as we have breath and strength ." 99-year-old Norman Lear, writer/producer, in a July 27, 2021, opinion in the Washington Post.

 
 

 
 

Covid-19

“Vaccines are the key, and vaccine hesitancy is the obstacle.”   Preeti Malani, an infectious disease researcher and chief health officer at the University of Michigan


Some weeks ago, it appeared that the pandemic was waning and that we should shift our content to other more pressing issues suggested by our readers. That view might have been premature, as the pandemic regains strength. Here are some stories that provide evidence of that. Not good news.


Pandemic is slowing economic recovery in Asia

According to an August 2, 2021, story in the Wall Street Journal, rising Covid-19 cases and the Delta variant are stalling Asia’s economic recovery. “Asia is emerging as a weak link in an otherwise strong global economic recovery,” WSJ reports. “New pandemic restrictions restrain manufacturing in some countries, and the exports that have powered the recovery in China show signs of slowing."  With progress on vaccinations slower than in the West, Asia is hitting “new pandemic highs” which “threaten to hurt consumer confidence and erode the advantage of many Asian economies as manufacturing powerhouses.”


Delta variant pushing herd immunity threshold higher

The emergence and spread of the Delta variant is changing the levels of vaccination needed for herd immunity, according to an August 3, 2021, story in Bloomberg News. The new threshold has been pushed to well over 80% and potentially as much as 90% because the Delta variant is “twice as transmissible.” Previous estimates of herd immunity were at 60% to 70%.


Israeli and UK research differ on whether those vaccinated first are more likely to catch Covid

A study in Israel suggests that those who received vaccines first are more likely to catch Covid than those who were vaccinated later. According to an August 7, 2021, story in The Times of Israel, the passage of time and the Delta variant decreased vaccine effectiveness. People vaccinated in January were said to have just 16% protection against infection now, while in those vaccinated in April had 75% protection. However, a study in the UK indicates the Israeli studies may be overstating the case, finding the same vaccine to be 88% effective in preventing symptomatic Covid — more than twice the rate found in the Israeli data.

 
 
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The Future of Work / The Economy

“College-degree discrimination has become so widespread that many take it for granted. Almost three-quarters of new jobs from 2007 to 2016 were roles in which most employers typically “require” bachelor’s degrees — but fewer than 4 in 10 American workers have that credential. Going to war against arithmetic is a bad idea, and our post-pandemic skilled-worker shortage is a wake-up call.”  Byron Auguste, CEO of Opportunity@Work and deputy director of the National Economic Council from 2013 to 2015.


Is shrinking the economy the way to save the planet?

An emerging de-growth movement believes “humanity can’t keep growing without driving humanity into climate catastrophe.” Advocates say the only solution is "a transition away from treating economic growth as a policy priority to an acceptance of shrinking GDP as a prerequisite to saving the planet.” According to an August 3, 2021, story in Vox, environmental policy assumes we can “figure out how to reduce carbon emissions, preserve ecosystems, and save endangered species while continuing to improve material living conditions for everyone in the world.” The de-growth movement argues that “climate change should prompt a radical rethinking of economic growth, and policymakers serious about climate change should try to build a livable world without economic growth fueling it.”


U.S. population growth slows, economy depends on the growth

If population growth fuels economic growth, and the goal is to rethink economic growth, the U.S. might unintentionally already be helping. According to a July 25, 2021, story in the Wall Street Journal, U.S. population growth has slowed with potential economic repercussions. “The economy of the developed world for the last two centuries now has been built on demographic expansion,” said Richard Jackson, president of the Global Aging Institute, a nonprofit research and education group. “We no longer have this long-term economic and geopolitical advantage.” According to the story, “some demographers cite an outside chance the (U.S.) population could shrink for the first time on record. Population growth is an important influence on the size of the labor market and a country’s fiscal and economic strength.”


Fortune Global 500 list — the highlights

This year’s Fortune Global 500 list is out. Some highlights via the August 2, 2021, CEO Daily:

  • Revenue overall dropped 5% in 2020, the largest since 2016.
  • Aggregate profits were down 20%, the biggest decline since 2009.
  • Walmart leads the list for the eighth year in a row.
  • Toyota is the biggest automaker on the list again.
  • Netflix is on the list for the first time.
  • Last year’s list contained six airlines; with their revenues down 60% in 2020, not a single one made the new list.
  • This is the second year in a row in which mainland China (including Hong Kong) has had more companies on the list than the U.S.
  • A decade ago, there were 69 companies on the list that hailed from Greater China; now it’s 143.
  • Of the 107 Global 500 companies that are government-owned, over two-thirds are Chinese.
  • ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell, both of which ranked at No. 1 at least twice this century, each dropped to their lowest Global 500 rankings yet, at No. 23 and No. 19 respectively.
  • Petroleum refiners saw a 36% decline in revenue.
  • Mexico’s Pemex was the biggest money-loser of the year (again) with a $23.7 billion loss in 2020.
  • Saudi Aramco’s two-year reign as “most profitable” company is over, with the crown passing to Apple again.
  • A year ago, there were 14 female CEOs. Now, the tally is 23.

Exxon and Chevron report billions in profits

Revenues might have been down for petroleum refiners in the last year, but Exxon and Chevron aren’t hurting. According to a July 30, 2021, story in the Wall Street Journal, Exxon reported $4.7 billion in profits and Chevron reported $3.1 billion. European oil companies also reported strong profits.


U.S. shares excess vaccines to inoculate Mexican factory workers

In a nod to the reciprocal importance of their shared economies, excess U.S. vaccines set to expire have been shared with Mexican factory workers at the border between San Diego and Tijuana. The goal was to protect not just the workers, but also the closely intertwined U.S. and Mexican economies. According to a July 26, 2021,  Seattle Times story, “Bilateral trade between the countries reached $612 billion in 2019. American companies manufacture billions of dollars’ worth of goods in Mexico, with maquiladoras assembling hundreds of thousands of Ford cars and Honeywell products every year.”

 
 

 
 

Climate Change

In the last issue of the Nett Report, we noted that the impacts of climate change seemed to be everywhere. This week, in California, the town of Greenville burned to the ground as a wildfire raged through it, and Mendocino is running out of water, trucking it in to keep businesses operating. Lake Oroville, California’s second largest reservoir, serving more than 20 million people, is at 25% of capacity, a level so low that it stopped producing hydroelectric power. A heat wave re-emerged in the Pacific Northwest. These seemingly isolated incidents are all thought to be fueled by climate change. Here’s what some experts told Axios in a July 19, 2021, story. 

  • “We can either assume that the [Pacific Northwest heat] event was a remarkable fluke, or that the models are still not capturing the relevant processes behind these events.” Climate Scientist Michael Mann, Penn State University.
     
  • “Part of the problem may be the tendency for climate scientists to be overly conservative in their "projection and attribution statements,” lest they be labeled alarmist. That may soon change.” Michael Wehner, who studies extreme events at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
     
  • “The bottom line: any faster deterioration of extreme weather events would only reinforce the message that current actions are not commensurate with the threat we face. We already know what we need to do: initiate rapid decarbonization, remove CO2 from the atmosphere, and improve resilience to future extreme events. The severity of recent weather-related events only underscores the urgency of this message.” Philip Duffy, executive director, Woodwell Climate Research Center.

Slowing of the Atlantic Ocean current system – what does it mean?

Multiple news outlets reported this week on a study that said the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was slowing down and could collapse. The AMOC is an ocean current system that includes the Gulf Stream. It brings warm ocean water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, moderating temperatures in Europe, and returning cooler water to the south. This ocean current system affects weather globally. The current is at its weakest point in 1,000 years, but scientists are unsure if it has reached a critical threshold that would result in an irreversible transition. An August 5, 2021, story in Phys.org reported that “the finding is not only worrying but also quite surprising as an abrupt transition of the AMOC has so far been expected to occur at global warming levels much higher than the current 1.2 degrees Celsius.”


Five percent of power plants release 73% of emissions from electricity production

The global strategy to reduce carbon emissions is largely clear, but sometimes the most effective tactics are lost in the strategy. A story in the August 4, 2021, issue of Smithsonian Magazine says that five percent of power plants release 73% of emissions from global electricity production. The worst offender, the Belchatow Power Plant in Poland, which releases more emissions burning coal to produce power than the emissions from the entire country of New Zealand. While the global strategy is to eliminate coal burning, the article suggests “targeting the world’s worst emitters could offer disproportionate benefits when it comes to fighting climate change.” The ten worst offenders were inefficient coal-fired power plants located in East Asia, Europe and India.


How hot is too hot to survive? Wet bulb temperature is key

As the world warms, places will begin to be too hot for human existence. When the combination of heat and humidity reach a certain point, the human body can no longer cool itself through perspiration. The combination of heat and humidity is called the wet bulb temperature, “which is determined by wrapping a completely wet wick around the bulb of a thermometer.“ According to a July 28, 2021, story in the Washington Post, “the wet-bulb temperature marks the upper limit of what the human body can handle — 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 Celsius). But any temperatures above 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 Celsius) can be dangerous and deadly. Parts of the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan have each passed the 95-degree mark for one or two hours more than three times since 1987. The coast of the Gulf of California is also seeing a “very significant” increase in wet-bulb and air temperatures.

 
 

 
 

The Nett Light-Side

Five minutes of mesmerizing ocean video

A July 27, 2021, posting on the Adventure Journal provides a link to mesmerizing video of ocean images, including beautiful shots of surfers passing by from under the waves. Take a break and have a look!

 
 

 
 

Nettleton Strategies — Helping People to Think

Carl Nettleton is an award-winning writeracclaimed speaker, facilitator, and a subject-matter expert regarding water, climate, sustainability, the ocean, and binational U.S. Mexico border affairs. Founded in 2007, Nettleton Strategies is a trusted source of analysis and advice on issues at the forefront of public policy, business and the environment.

 
 

 
 
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Nettleton Strategies
P.O. Box 22971
San Diego, Ca 92192-2971
U.S.A.
+1 858-353-5489
info@nettstrategies.com
www.nettstrategies.com

 
 

 
 

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